Stock Market Insight 24. Sept 25
Here is my insight on US stock market
Greg
9/25/2025
Introduction
US markets declined today, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq logging back-to-back losses as tech stocks retreated on AI spending concerns, and Alibaba soared. Wall Street's optimism persists, but historical parallels to pre-volatile periods (e.g., dot-com overextension) raise flags. Let's break down the mixed signals, from tech pullback to commodity resilience, in this daily recap.
(Quick Stat: S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.3% – challenging September's defiance amid AI fizzle.)
Recommendations & Forward Outlook
Bias – Buy Dips, Monitor Volatility: Lean long tech on pullbacks (Nvidia dips), but hedge AI sectors. Seasonally, September end could see bounces if PMIs beat. Risks: VIX spikes, AI spending cuts.
Action Items:
Buy: Small-caps on dips, silver ETFs (SLV).
Watch: AI stock trendlines, oil tensions.
Week Ahead: PMIs/GDP – potential for 'crazy' swings if data surprises.
Overall: The bullish structure holds, supported by Fed liquidity, AI potential, and trends like Nasdaq's resilience and small-cap stability, making full bearish calls early. However, euphoria's double-edged—sector pullbacks (tech/AI weakness) echo pre-volatile patterns (2000 dot-com), with trendlines as key breaks. With S&P above 200-day MA and $962B buybacks, 2025's September +1.3% potential lingers, but AI concerns and oil tensions signal caution. Stay bullish but hedged with stops.
Market Sentiment & Seasonality Factor
Overall Sentiment: Cautionary Bullish (Greed Territory) The CNN Fear & Greed Index dipped to 55 (still Greed) as of September 24, driven by momentum but hit by tech pullback (AI stocks down, transports lagging). Retail chatter remains, a contrarian top signal. Bearish divergences (RSI 68+, VIX 15) suggest vulnerability, but flows support buys.
Seasonality Check: September Curse Testing? September's weak history persists: S&P 500 averages -0.7% to -1.2% since 1950 (44% win rate), tied to fiscal ends. 2025's +1.3% potential (above 200-day MA) is tested, but October's strength (e.g., post-2008 bounces) could prevail if AI rebounds. Risk: Volatility spikes if euphoria fades, echoing 1997's shifts.
(Infographic Idea: Seasonal heatmap – Yellow for current test, green for potential flip.)
Key Market Movements
The rally paused, with weakness in tech and AI sectors but gains in Alibaba. Highlights:
Indices Down: S&P 500 -0.3% (near 7,000), Nasdaq -0.3% (close intact but tested), Dow -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.3% (small-cap stable – rotation paused).
Tech/Semis Mixed: Nvidia -0.4% (at $175, eyeing $185), Intel flat. Alibaba +8% (China stimulus boost), but AI frenzy fizzles.
Euphoria Signals: IPO steady; weakening AI as potential 'crazy' precursor.