Stock Market Insight 23. Sept 25
Here is my insight on US stock market
Greg
9/24/2025
Introduction
US markets declined today, with the Dow ending lower, S&P 500 snapping its 3-day win streak, and Nasdaq tumbling 1% amid AI frenzy fizzling and Fed Powell hints at labor market weakness. Wall Street's upgrades persist, but historical parallels to pre-crash sectors (e.g., 2008 financials, dot-com infrastructure) raise flags. Let's break down the mixed signals, from tech resilience to commodity volatility, in this daily recap.
(Quick Stat: S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -1% – testing September's defiance amid pullback.)
Recommendations & Forward Outlook
Bias – Buy Dips, Monitor Weakness: Lean long tech (Nvidia dips), but hedge transports/homebuilders. Seasonally, September end could rally if PMIs beat. Risks: VIX spikes, sector breaks.
Action Items:
Buy: Small-caps on dips, silver ETFs (SLV).
Watch: Transport trendlines, oil tensions.
Week Ahead: PMIs/GDP – potential for volatility if data disappoints.
Overall: The bullish structure endures, backed by Fed liquidity, AI momentum, and trends like Nasdaq's strength and small-cap hold, making bearish calls premature. However, euphoria's double-edged—sector analysis (homebuilders/transports weakness) echoes pre-crash patterns (2008 extremes), with trendlines as critical breaks. With S&P above 200-day MA and $960B buybacks, 2025's September +1.3% potential remains, but divergences and oil tensions signal caution. Stay bullish but hedged with stops.
Market Sentiment & Seasonality Factor
Overall Sentiment: Cautionary Bullish (Greed Territory) The CNN Fear & Greed Index slipped to 58 (still Greed) as of September 23, fueled by momentum but pressured by sector weakness (homebuilders down, transports lagging). Retail chatter on stocks remains high, a contrarian top signal. Bearish divergences (RSI 70+, VIX 14) hint at vulnerability, but flows support dips.
Seasonality Check: September Curse Fading? September's weak track record lingers: S&P 500 averages -0.7% to -1.2% since 1950 (44% win rate), driven by fiscal closes. 2025's +1.3% potential (above 200-day MA) holds, but October's historical strength (e.g., post-2008 recovery) could flip if transports weaken further. Risk: Euphoria masks underlying cracks, echoing 1997's false security.
(Infographic Idea: Seasonal heatmap – Green for 2025 flip, yellow for sector warnings.)
Key Market Movements
The rally showed mixed performance, with new signs of strength in some groups but weakness in homebuilders and transports. Highlights:
Indices Mixed: S&P 500 -0.6% (near 7,000), Nasdaq -1% (bullish close intact but tested), Dow -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.4% (small-cap holding – rotation intact but cautious).
Tech/Semis Steady: Nvidia -0.5% (at $175, eyeing $185), Intel steady (chip collab ongoing). Tesla grinds up, but transport lag impacts EV supply.
Euphoria Signals: IPO activity steady; weakening sectors as pre-crash precursors.