Overall: The bullish structure remains firmly in place, driven by a confluence of factors that continue to fuel optimism. Major indices like the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 maintain upward trends, supported by robust liquidity flows from the Fed’s rate cuts, a flood of IPO activity reminiscent of 1997’s pre-boom phase, and Wall Street’s aggressive S&P 500 target hike to 7,200—reflecting confidence in AI-driven earnings and economic resilience (e.g., jobless claims at 230K vs. 250K expected). Technicals reinforce this: semis (Nvidia eyeing $185–200), Tesla’s steady grind, and Bitcoin’s push past $118K all signal risk-on momentum, with options flows and record winning streaks adding fuel. The market’s 15% above its 200-day MA further defies September’s historical weakness, flipping the seasonal average to +1.3% in similar setups, bolstered by $958B in buybacks and Goldman’s $271 EPS forecast for 2025.
However, euphoria’s double-edged nature looms large, a lesson etched from 1997 when liquidity bred a legendary run (e.g., Netscape’s vertical surge) only to end in volatility and a dot-com reckoning. Today’s signs—retail chatter in elevators, IPO frenzy, and overbought RSI (Nasdaq at 75+)—echo that era’s late-bull exuberance, suggesting we’re nearing a point where "everyone’s in." While this doesn’t yet signal an immediate top (divergences are normal in uptrends), it warrants caution. The trend stays bullish until proven otherwise, but prudent traders should hedge with stops at key supports (e.g., S&P 6,800, Bitcoin $110) and watch for a potential "ballistic" run turning into a sell-off if sentiment overextends. What’s your take on the bubble buzz? Are we in a super-bubble, or just early in a melt-up? Comment below!