Stock Market Insight 16. December 25

Key Figures to Watch

Stocks: The S&P 500 is testing support at 6,700–6,800. If it clears 6,875, the "Santa Rally" is likely back on.

Tesla: The clear leader, currently hitting all-time highs and eyeing the $500 mark.

Oil: Crude is crashing toward $55, which is lowering inflation and transport costs.

Unemployment: Has ticked up to 4.6%, creating some long-term recession fears despite short-term stock strength.

The analysts emphasize that while the S&P 500 is showing some technical strain, the seasonal "Santa Rally" remains a high-probability event for the end of 2025.

The S&P 500: Key Technicals & Levels

Critical Support: The S&P 500 is currently testing support at its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, [02.4]. The "Brick Wall": Some technical analysts see a major resistance level (a "trendline ceiling") that limits immediate upside to about 2.35% from mid-December prices [03.5]. Leadership Shift: A significant theme is the "Great Rotation." While the S&P 500 index remains near all-time highs, the "Mag 7" tech giants (like Microsoft and Meta) are faltering, trading 10–15% below their peaks [03.5]. Money is moving out of overvalued tech and into Utilities, Financials, and Small Caps (Russell 2000) [03.5], [4.5].

Gold & Metals

Sentiment: Very bullish. Gold is consolidating near all-time highs and looks ready for another breakout.

The "Metals Bonanza": For the first time in years, metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum) are outperforming big tech.

Silver: A standout performer, recently surging toward $65/oz.

Future Outlook & Sentiment

Short-Term: Analysts expect a "flush" or shakeout of nervous traders followed by a rally into the New Year.

Long-Term (2026): Expect a "wild year" with high volatility. The AI trade (Nvidia) may face a reality check if growth slows down, and midterm elections will likely cause two or more significant pullbacks.

Crypto

Retail traders are panicking/liquidating, but "Whales" are buying the dip heavily, suggesting a bottom is forming.